01MITOPOLAR OUTPUT
Sea-Ice Forecast
NOMINAL
Predicts where navigable water will open or compress before the vessel arrives, with uncertainty attached to every cell.
Mean SIC43%+8% by arrival
Mean SIT0.82 m+0.11 m
Drift speed0.31 knENE · 071°
Coverage94.2%90% interval
Adaptive compute37% saved
TemporalCodebookMito routerGraph
Compute is concentrating on the ice edge and the vessel’s arrival corridor. Stable open-water cells use one expert.
iWhy it matters At +24 h, the eastern ice edge compresses by 11 km. Static ice maps would underestimate exposure on the direct corridor.
02MITOBERG OUTPUT
Iceberg Forecast
WATCH
Combines known drift physics with a learned residual to forecast position, velocity, grounding and a full probability corridor.
CLOSEST APPROACH22.8 kmat vessel ETA +14 h
3.3%collision
probability
Drift1.18 kn094° · E
Corridor14 × 7 km90% probability
Estimated draft186 mBathymetry safe
Observation age42 minHigh quality
Force contributionPhysics + ML
!Watch B-17A Its +24 h uncertainty corridor overlaps the direct route for 31 minutes. The optimizer has already applied a safe offset.
03ARRIVAL-TIME ANALYSIS
Future Risk
ELEVATED
Scores the hazard at the exact time this vessel reaches each grid cell—not the conditions visible right now.
ROUTE EXPOSUREManageable risk
12 points below operational limit
Why arrival time changes the answerETA +14 h
STATIC MAP21looks safe now
→
POLARMITO38compression at arrival
iVessel-specific result The same corridor scores 29 for a PC3 icebreaker and 54 for a PC7 supply vessel because draft, ice class and turning limits differ.
04MULTI-OBJECTIVE A*
Route Optimizer
OPTIMAL
Balances safety, fuel, distance and arrival time over a map that changes while the vessel is moving.
Fuel forecast94.6 t−11.8 t vs direct
Minimum clearance18.2 km90% corridor
Travel time30.4 h+1.3 h vs direct
CO₂ estimate301 t−11.1%
Decision explanationROUTE B
Avoids B-17A’s 67% probability corridor at ETA +14 h and bypasses an ice edge predicted to rise from 43% to 76% concentration. Adds 18 km but reduces hazard exposure by 61%.
+18 km distance−11.8 t fuel−61% hazard
Human authority retained. Approval records the recommendation; it never issues an autonomous helm command.